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Here's How IonQ's Expanding Commercial Traction Is Driving Its 2026 Outlook

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Key Takeaways

  • IonQ raised 2026 revenue guidance to $260M-$270M after Q1 revenue jumped 755% year over year.
  • IONQ's remaining performance obligations rose to $470M, signaling strong future demand.
  • QBTS and QUBT posted sharp bookings and revenue gains as quantum adoption continued expanding.

In the first quarter, IonQ (IONQ - Free Report) delivered robust revenue growth of 755% year over year, driven by strong demand for its industry-leading quantum computing systems and the growing commercial traction of its broader quantum platform. The company’s performance was supported by increasing global sales of quantum computing systems, rising high-margin cloud utilization and expanding application-layer partnerships with enterprise customers.

Driven by this momentum, IonQ raised its full-year revenue guidance to $260-$270 million, up from its previous forecast of $225–$245 million. For the full year, the company expects organic revenue growth of more than 100% year over year, while remaining performance obligations rise to $470 million, highlighting strong future demand and an expanding customer pipeline.

Despite its rapid growth, IonQ continues to face meaningful risks. The company remains unprofitable as it invests heavily in R&D expansion. In addition, execution challenges persist around scaling fault-tolerant quantum systems and successfully converting its growing backlog into sustainable, recurring revenues.

Peer Update

In the first quarter, D-Wave Quantum (QBTS - Free Report) reported bookings growth of nearly 1,994% year over year, while remaining performance obligations surged 563%. D-Wave Quantum is the only quantum computing company developing both annealing and gate-model systems, positioning it to address the broader quantum computing market. Several Forbes Global 2000 companies rely on its technology to solve complex operational challenges. The company’s dual-rail gate-model technology is a key differentiator, combining superconducting speed, high-performance fidelity and a scalable architecture that could strengthen its long-term competitive position.

Still, risks remain, including revenue volatility tied to large system deals, elevated operating expenses and execution challenges associated with scaling both annealing and gate-model platforms.

In the first quarter of 2026, Quantum Computing or “QCi” (QUBT - Free Report) reported revenues of $3.70 million, up sharply from $39,000 a year earlier, driven mainly by its acquisitions of LSI and NuCrypt. Excluding the LSI and NuCrypt contributions, QCi revenues increased to $204,000 primarily driven by deliveries of foundry orders and work on an R&D subcontract for NASA. The company also made progress in advancing its photonics and quantum technology roadmap, strengthening its position in low-power, room-temperature computing solutions while expanding its commercial momentum and scalable manufacturing capabilities.

Yet, risks persist, as the company remains unprofitable while continuing to invest heavily in R&D expansion.

IONQ’s Price Performance

Over the past year, IONQ’s shares have gained 37.5% compared with the industry’s 250.4% growth. The S&P 500 composite has grown 31.8% in the same period.

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Expensive Valuation

IonQ currently trades at a forward 12-month Price-to-Sales (P/S) of 76.51X compared with the industry median of 4.16X.

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IONQ Stock Estimate Trend

In the past 30 days, its loss per share estimate for 2026 has moved south to $1.02.

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IonQ stock currently has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). 

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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